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Evergrande payment surprise, PMIs in focus

October 22,2021 06:26:44

Overnight Headlines

*US stocks ended mixed, S&P500 posted a record closing high

*USD fell against most of its peers, but remains above 93.50

*US 10-year Treasury yield hits new cycle high at 1.706%

*Evergrande makes surprise payment, China property stocks rally

US equities ended mixed again on Thursday with the Dow closing in the red, but the Nasdaq was boosted by tech stocks. All three major US averages are on track to close the week higher for a third straight week of gains. Cyclical shares slumped as markets price for higher inflation and tightening monetary policy. Asian markets are positive and being driven by tech stocks. US futures point to a modestly lower open.

USD fell and touched its lowest level in three weeks before rebounding. EUR tried again to break through 1.1665 but failed. GBP trades around 1.38 and the falling trendline from the June highs. EUR/GBP tested recent lows at 0.8420 which held. Commod-$s took a breather with the 200-day SMA acting as resistance on AUD.

Market Thoughts – PMIs out today

The highlight of the data week in Europe will be today’s flash October PMIs. After the composite hit a 15-year high in July, analysts expect a fall to 55.0 from 56.2 in September.

The data will likely show the impact of high energy prices in the region. A hit to the manufacturing sector is generally expected as confidence softens. Labour and supply shortages may also be reflected. This means growing price pressures which could see lower demand going forward.

Chart of the Day – EUR/CHF sinking

Concerns about slowing growth in the eurozone have seen flows back to the safe haven CHF recently. This pair is also known for SNB intervention, with 1.07 thought to have been a “line in the sand” in previous months. Essentially, the central bank sells CHF to weaken the currency.

The long-term downtrend looks to have reasserted itself again yesterday. Prices broke down through the near-term support zone around 1.0696. The October spike low at 1.0680 was also taken out. This just leaves the November lows at 1.0660 ahead of the big figure at 1.06. The 2020 low sits at 1.05. If the eurozone recovery does remain in place, the pair should move back towards 1.09 over the long-term. Of course, any SNB intervention will also help.

Jamie DuttaAnalyst / Trader

"With extensive experience as a full time trader and financial market commentator, I have worked as a trader in top tier investment banks and trading houses, including Morgan Stanley and GAIN Capital trading Forex, Index derivatives. and Bonds. I combine technical analysis with a deep fundamental knowledge to identify trade set-ups. My real life experience allows me to break down the complexities of financial jargon and trading. This means everyone can better understand the compelling forces of greed and fear which are realised every day in countless ways across markets."

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